HRRR

The HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) runs at 3km resolution — detailed enough to show individual thunderstorm cells. It updates every hour and forecasts 18 hours ahead (48 hours on extended runs).

This is the model severe weather forecasters and storm chasers rely on for real-time storm tracking. For equestrians, it's your "do I have time to finish this ride before the storm hits" model.

Composite reflectivity shows what radar *will* look like in the future. Greens are light rain, yellows are moderate, reds are heavy rain/hail, and magentas/purples indicate severe storms.

2m temperature shows the surface temperature forecast at each hour, so you can see exactly when the cold front drops temps or when afternoon heat peaks.

The reflectivity plots look like radar — because they are, just forecast radar instead of observed.

Color scale: - Green (20-35 dBZ): Light rain. Safe to ride but you'll get wet - Yellow (35-45 dBZ): Moderate rain. Footing gets slick, visibility drops - Orange/Red (45-55 dBZ): Heavy rain, possible small hail. Get horses inside - Magenta/Purple (55+ dBZ): Severe thunderstorms. Large hail, damaging winds, possible tornadoes. Horses should be in the barn, not in an open pasture

Movement matters: Animate the frames and watch which direction cells are moving. Storms in the US typically move west-to-east or southwest-to-northeast. If a line of red/orange is 50 miles to your west and moving at 30mph, you have about 90 minutes.

For equestrians: If HRRR shows reflectivity over your barn in the next 3-6 hours, trust it. The model is exceptionally good at short-range convective forecasting.