ECMWF EPS
ECMWF Ensemble Prediction SystemEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts · 0.4° / 51 members · 15 days · Twice daily
What This Model Is Showing
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The European 51-member ensemble — the gold standard for medium-range forecasting. Free OpenData access provides reduced resolution but full ensemble spread.
Cross-validate GEFS, hurricane track confidence, long-range outlooks
500mb Heights — Atmospheric Pattern
ECMWF EPS · 5 framesHow to Read ECMWF EPS Spaghetti
ECMWF EPS vs GEFS
The ECMWF EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) is the European equivalent of GEFS — but with 50 members instead of 31. More members means a better sampling of forecast uncertainty.
Read ECMWF EPS spaghetti plots the same way as GEFS: tight lines = confidence, scattered lines = uncertainty. The ensemble mean (white dashed) is your best single estimate.
Key advantage of ECMWF EPS: Because the underlying model is more accurate, the ensemble members tend to cluster more meaningfully. When 45 out of 50 ECMWF EPS members agree on a feature, that's very high confidence — arguably higher than GEFS agreement because each member starts from a better baseline.
For equestrians: If both GEFS and ECMWF EPS show tight agreement on a weather pattern, you can plan with near-certainty. If they both show high spread, nobody knows what's coming — have contingency plans.